A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
