Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
