Just 60 days prior when the young forward stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while his coach berated him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. Back then, as Villa failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were a sign or the reason of Villa's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, however, the sideline response was decidedly more positive. When the England international drilled in his second strike to reinstate his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician tore off his jacket, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The Birmingham club marched on to ten wins in a row and despite not winning their initial half-dozen games, are somehow a mere three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Title Contenders?
This is a particularly tough proposition to address. The historical record, the traditional standing of the club, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they've rarely been completely commanding in many games, despite the fact the positive results have accumulated.
Per the data, in only two games has the side had an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a team who have strung together 10 in a row, the Villans appear weirdly vulnerable – but right now the margins are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy appears to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and then rely on Rogers to rescue them with a couple of crisp finishes. This was the case away to Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and once more against United.
Rogers' first goal came from a brilliant finish, arced precisely inside the post from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal acted as a slight scruffier version of the opener as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opposition had more efforts and more efforts on goal. The team has won each of their last eight by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival Villa have to face in the near future. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot maintain thrashing the football into the top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is another reality whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players could still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward may begin to scoring again.
- The attacking talent could transform into the force he showed during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually come back from the treatment room, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
This could contain the possibility for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
However, this was unforeseen. Few believed Aston Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And certainly earlier this season, nobody thought Rogers by the end of the year would be leading a hunt for the title and appearing as an essential Three Lions star.
This remarkable period is to be savoured precisely because it seems so surreal. When the match-winner stood in front of the Villa faithful when the game ended conducting the cheers, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods do not happen often and must be appreciated.
